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Mountain Area Distress Sale Update

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

The following matrix shows all single family home sales on the mountain by area for 2011 reported to the Rim Association of Realtors.  The bank owned figures represent all sales that were a result of forecloure.  Short sales were sales that occured where the seller negotiated settlement with his or her lender at closing where the lender approved a "less than full payoff."  The normal sale column represents a non distress sale or normal transaction.

Of note from the last reporting of this type, Crestline and Running Springs both saw a decrease in the percentage of distressed sales as sellers became more educated on how to complete with the bank owned properties and short sales.  Lake Arrowhead was unchanged from the previous period.

	Bank	Short	Normal	Total	Percent
Area	Owned	Sale	Sale	Sales	Distressed
Arrowbear	8	1	7	16	56%
Arrowhead Villas	10	2	15	27	44%
Arrowhead Woods	62	49	182	293	38%
Cedar Glen	5	1	15	21	29%
Crestline	79	14	74	167	56%
Deerlodge Park	2	1	1	4	75%
Green Valley Lake	7	3	9	19	53%
Lake Front Property	0	2	29	31	6%
Running Springs	45	18	53	116	54%
Sky Forest	10	2	7	19	63%
Twin Peaks/Blue Jay	33	7	29	69	58%

Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty is the market leader in the mountain communities.  Whether you are a seller looking to maximize the return on your real estate, or a buyer looking for the perfect mountain home, our team of professionals stand ready to provide you with real estate related services. 

Please contact me at the office if you need real estate assistance.

 

Will "Low Balling" work in Lake Arrowhead?

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

The following matrix shows all single family home sales in Lake Arrowhead reported as sold to the Rim Association of Realtors for the calendar year 2011, it breaks down by price range the 3 types of sales.... Standard sales, Short Sales and REO sales or bank owned properties.  What it reveals is that 65% of the properties in Lake Arrowhead last year were standard, non-distressed sales.  16% of the sales the seller negotiated a settlement on the mortgage (short sale) and, 19% of the sales came as a result of foreclosure.  Lake Arrowhead has a lower percentage of distressed sales than any other community from Crestline to Green Valley Lake.

	Standard	Short	Bank Owned
Price Range	Sales	Sales	Sales
0- $299k	81	24	54
$300k-$499k	64	21	7
$500k-$999k	39	5	1
$1Mil+	28	1	0
Total Sales	212	51	62
% of Market	65%	16%	19%

The next matrix shows at what percentage of asking to sales price the homes sold for in each price range and for each type of sale.  Homes in Lake Arrowhead over the last 12 months sold for on average of 94% to 96% of asking price.  What this means is that for the homes that sold, buyers were able to negotiate between 4% and 6% off of the asking price.  Buyers often think that it is normal that they will be able to come in and cut a "fat hog."  What the data demonstrates is that in fact when a seller has it priced correctly, a discount of very little off the asking price is necessary to make a deal. 

Standard Sales
	List Price to
Price Range	Sale Price Ratio
0- $299k	94%
$300k-$499k	96%
$500k-$999k	95%
$1Mil+	92%
Standard Sale Average	95%
Short Sales
	List Price to
Price Range	Sale Price Ratio
0- $299k	98%
$300k-$499k	95%
$500k-$999k	88%
$1Mil+	84%
Short Sale Average	96%
Bank Owned Sales
	List Price to
Price Range	Sale Price  Ratio
0- $299k	94%
$300k-$499k	92%
$500k-$999k	99%
$1Mil+
Bank Owned Average	94%

For sellers the key is making sure that you are value priced, or you are not going to even get offers.  In the past, a seller could hold his price knowing that they would take a much lower offer and it would work.  In the current market, this strategy doesn't work.  The data shows that only the homes that are priced 4% to 5% above what they will actually sell for are the ones that will get offers and sell. 

I hear sellers say all the time.  I don't want to reduce my price.... someone will make me an offer.... the fact is Mr. Seller they won't.

Serious sellers list their property with a company that gets results.  That company is Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty.  If you are a homeowner needing the assistance of a professional nationally recognized firm don't hesitate to contact me at the office..

Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty sells more homes than anyone on the mountain.  In these tough economic times sellers need every advantage possible to obtain the best results.  Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty offers those advantages.

2011 Homes Sales in Lake Arrowhead

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

The following chart shows all single family home sales in Lake Arrowhead reported as sold to the Rim Associaion of Realtors for the calendar year 2011.  Serious sellers list their property with a company that gets results.  That company is Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty.  If you are a homeowner needing the assistance of a professional nationally recognized firm don't hesitate to contact Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty.

Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty sells more homes than anyone on the mountain.  In these tough economic times sellers need every advantage possible to obtain the best results.  Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty offers those advantages.

	Listings	Buyer	Total
Firm	Sold	Sales	Sales
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty	124	88	212
Capre	57	67	124
Remax Lakeside	21	37	58
Prudential California	24	18	42
Out of Area Broker	1	35	36
Lynne B. Wilson and Associates	18	16	34
Mountain Country Realty	18	15	33
Keller Williams Lake Arrowhead	10	11	21
Prime Properties	9	9	18
Century 21 Showcase	9	3	12
Windermere Real Estate	5	4	9
Glenn Tinturin Broker	2	6	8
Kristinna Sellers Broker	4	4	8
Sothebys	4	2	6
Century 21 Bonnie Blue	4	2	6
Woody Stahl Broker	2	2	4
Lake Arrowhead Realty Company	0	2	2
Arrowhead Resort Realty	1	1	2
Highlander Real Estate	2	0	2
Mountain Top Producers	0	1	1
Plaza One Real Estate	0	1	1
Coldwell Banker Running Springs	1	0	1
Dan Teter Broker	1	0	1
Robert Kendziorski Broker	1	0	1
Era Bruin Trojan	1	0	1
Freeman and Associates	1	0	1
Judy Marzicola Broker	1	0	1
Mountain Real Estate Services	1	0	1
Remax Metro	1	0	1
Shear Real Estate	1	0	1
Total	324	324	648

Contact me at the office if you would like to find out what we can do to assist you with your real estate related needs.  Steve Keefe  909.744.7690

Homes Sell Year Round in the Mountain Communities

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

The following matrix shows single family home sales on the mountain reported to the Rim Association of Realtors for the last two years.  Frequently I am told by sellers that they don't think that any sales occur in the Winter months.  Many sellers make the mistake of pulling their home off the market for the Winter and put it back on in the Spring. 

What the matrix reveals is that 46%... nearly half of the sales on the mountain occur in the first half of the year.  It is true that we see a slight decline in the number of sales in January, February and March, but the activity is still pretty strong.  Sellers that keep the property on the market through the Winter enjoy less competition as many sellers make the mistake of "taking a break."

I encourage all of our sellers to take advantage of the market year round.  There are many folks who come and buy in the Winter because they enjoy the Winter.  In 2010 and 2011 in fact 349 homes sold on the mountain in the months of January, February and March....

Mountain Home Sales
Month	2010	2011	Total	Percent
January	58	52	110	6%
February	44	57	101	6%
March	82	55	137	8%
April	67	71	138	8%
May	71	53	124	7%	1st Half
June	78	89	167	10%	46%
July	68	84	152	9%
August	74	86	160	9%
September	72	78	150	9%
October	76	76	152	9%
November	80	87	167	10%	2nd Half
December	62	86	148	9%	54%
Total	832	874	1706	100%

Contact me at the office if you would like to find out what we can do to assist you with your real estate related needs.

Sales Activity in Cedar Ridge Estates

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

The following matrix shows the last 3 years of activity for home sales in Cedar Ridge Estates, Lake Arrowhead California reported to the Rim Association of Realtors.  In 2009 there were only 2 homes sold.  2010 and 2011 saw a significant increase in sales activity. 

Notable is when homes in Cedar Ridge sold.  It is commonly thought that nothing sells in the mountains the first half of the year.  Actually what the data reveals is that 41% of sales happen in the first half and 59% in the second half. For a home to close escrow in March and April, it needs to be  put in escrow in January/February which is considered the heart of our Winter.  March and April were tied for 3rd for the most active months for closings so those homes were actually shown and put in escrow in January and February.

Often sellers pull their homes off the market during the WInter months because they feel that there will be no sales activity.  This is a mistake.  Sellers that remain on the market experience less competition from other sellers and a better chance for a sale.

Cedar Ridge Home Sales
Month	2009	2010	2011	Total	Percent
January	0	0	1	1	6%
February	0	0	0	0	0%
March	0	2	0	2	12%
April	1	0	1	2	12%
May	0	0	1	1	6%	1st Half
June	1	0	0	1	6%	41%
July	0	0	1	1	6%
August	0	0	1	1	6%
September	0	0	0	0	0%
October	0	3	2	5	29%
November	0	2	1	3	18%	2nd Half
December	0	0	0	0	0%	59%
Total	2	7	8	17	100%

Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty sells more homes than any other local brokerage year round.  Our agents work hard Winter, Spring, Summer and Fall to make sales.  Contact me at the office if you would like to discuss what we can do to assist you with your real estate related needs.

 

How good is Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty... Not all Real Estate Firms Were Created Equal

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

Often I field a question from a member of the public asking how good our team really is.  One of the measurements I use to compare how we are doing against our competitors is our list to sell ratio.  When someone lists their home with a real estate brokerage, their primary objective is to sell the property.  Some brokerages have a higher success rate than others.  Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty not surprisingly has the highest success rate of any other mountain brokerage.  Not only do we list more homes than any other firm.  A higher percentage of the homes we list actually sell. 

The following chart shows the number of single family homes that the top 8 firms on the mountain listed according to the Rim Associaion of Realtors for the last 24 months.  The second column represents how many of those listings either sold or are currently in escrow.  The last column represents the firms "success" ratio.  For example, Coldwell Banker Sky RIdge Realty listed 1078 listings during that time period with 601 of those listings resulting in a sale.  This represents a 56% success ratio.  The higher the ratio, the stronger the company. 

	Listings	Sold or	Success
Firm	Taken	In Escrow	Ratio
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty	1078	601	56%
Capre	491	191	39%
Remax Lakeside	234	102	44%
Prudential California	169	92	54%
Mountain Country Realty	84	30	36%
Lynne B. Wilson and Associates	123	29	24%
Keller Williams Lake Arrowhead	54	19	35%
Prime Properties	69	26	38%

Serious sellers list their property with a company that gets results.  That company is Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty.  If you are a homeowner needing the assistance of a professional nationally recognized firm don't hesitate to contact Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty.

Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty sells more homes than anyone on the mountain.  In these tough economic times sellers need every advantage possible to obtain the best results.  Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty offers those advantages.

 

Home Sales for 2011 on the Mountain

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

The following chart shows all single family home sales on the mountain reported as sold to the Rim Associaion of Realtors for the calendar year 2011.  Serious sellers list their property with a company that gets results.  That company is Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty.  If you are a homeowner needing the assistance of a professional nationally recognized firm don't hesitate to contact Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty.

Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty sells more homes than anyone on the mountain.  In these tough economic times sellers need every advantage possible to obtain the best results.  Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty offers those advantages.

	Listings	Buyer	Total
Firm	Sold	Sales	Sales
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty	327	193	520
Capre	109	123	232
Out of Area Broker	0	158	158
Remax Lakeside	61	73	134
Prudential California Real Estate	56	38	94
Mountain Top Producers	34	46	80
Mountain Country Realty	29	36	65
Lynn B. Wilson & Associates	32	29	61
Keller Williams Lake Arrowhead	22	29	51
Sotheby's	32	4	36
Century 21 Showcase	20	10	30
Prime Properties	12	13	25
Lakeview Realty	8	16	24
Windermere	15	7	22
Century 21 Bonnie Blue	9	10	19
Coldwell Banker Running Springs	8	9	17
Highlander Real Estate	12	5	17
Maxim Properties	16	1	17
Glenn Tinturin, Broker	3	8	11
Shear Realty	11	0	11
ERA Bruin Trojan	5	5	10
Plaza One Realty Group	6	4	10
Dan Teter, Broker	6	3	9
Kristinna Sellers, Broker	4	4	8
Cozy Cabins Realty	2	4	6
Green Valley Real Estate	2	4	6
Century 21 San Moritz	0	5	5
Gregg Grant, Broker	3	2	5
Healstone Real Estate	4	1	5
Woody Stahl, Broker	4	1	5
Arrowhead Resort Realty	0	4	4
Coldwell Banker Rim O' The World	0	4	4
Mountain Cabin Real Estate	1	3	4
Bibby Realty	0	3	3
Patrick Daniali, Broker	3	0	3
Rita Shaw, Broker	1	2	3
Lake Arrowhead Realty Co.	0	2	2
Robert Kendziorski, Broker	1	0	1
Freeman & Associates	1	0	1
Herrington Real Estate	0	1	1
Judith Marzicola, Broker	1	0	1
Key Asset Solutions	1	0	1
KR Homes, Inc	1	0	1
Realty World Moquin	0	1	1
Waynes Realty	0	1	1
	862	862

When A "Approved Short Sale" "Isn't".

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

I received a call a week ago from a client that found a property on Realtor.com which had language in it stating “Approved Short Sale”.  The client first wanted to know what that meant because in general short sales are not approved until an offer has been submitted to the bank. 

When a listing agent lists this information in the remarks for a listing, they do so because at some point in the recent past, an offer was submitted that was accepted by the seller, and sent on to the bank for approval of the shortage the bank would receive.  This process sometimes takes an extended period of time… in some instances after the lengthy approval process the buyer decides to not move forward, or the approval from the bank came back at a higher price than what was submitted.  When this happens the agent will put the property back on the market knowing that the previous offer was approved at a certain amount, this becomes the pre-approved figure. 

Unfortunately, we sometimes are experiencing agents playing games by offering a property at a list price that they know is well below what the bank would accept…. Someone might ask what good does that do, the answer is not much except maybe for the listing agent.  In fact this practice of misrepresenting a list price can do a lot of harm. 

Back to my example above… I decided to contact the listing agent and I asked this question:  “Listing Agents Name, Address of the property, Is the short sale approved for $159,000?  I have someone interested in writing an offer.”  The answer I received was “Property Address, Is an approved short sale, but the price is not yet approved.  We have an offer on it that we have sent to the bank.”  A little confused, my reply was “If the price isn’t approved, what is approved about it?”  The agent answered “The bank will accept a short sale.  They sent us an approval for that only so far.”  Ladies and Gentlemen, that is not an approved short sale and should not be represented as such in marketing materials.  As a general rule of thumb, it is a given that a lender will accept less than what is owed on a property in today’s real estate market.  Agents representing that they have an approved short sale when they don’t  is a blatant mis-representation that can cause a great deal of problems.

My client chose not to pursue this property after the information was revealed to them.  Had we chosen to move forward, we would have requested a copy of the “Short Sale Approval” to see in fact under what terms the sale had been approved.  I guess in this case all it would have said is “yes, we will take less?”

Call me if I can help you navigate the complicated world of real estate.  I can be reached at the office at 909.336.7995, or via email at steve@cbskyridge.com  I would be happy to help you get the best deal and avoid the challenges.

Mortgage Q&A

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

1. Will I save money if I make my regular monthly payment early?

No.  Paying early does not do anthing but allow the mortgage servicer to earn additional interest on your money until the payment due date.  Making extra payments or paying more than your regularly scheduled payment will however save you money.

2. If I make a large extra payment, or pay down the mortgage, will my future payments be lower?

Yes and No.  If it is a variable rate mortgage the payment is calculated on the anniversary date or change date by utilizing the current rate, the outstanding balance and the remaining term.  So reducing the principal will lower your payment after the adjustment date.  If it is a fixed rate mortgage, all additional payments will do  is pay the loan off earlier.  This will save money in the long run, but does not reduce the monthly payments.

3. Is it better to invest excessive funds, or pay more on my mortgage?

It depends upon what return you can expect in other investments.  You can calculate the return on investment in the mortgage by using the interest rate.  This is considered a no risk investment.  If you have an extremely low rate, you may be able to invest in vehicles that can give you a better return.  Talk with an investment advisor to insure you are making smart money decisions.

4. Is it better to make extra payments early in the mortgage cycle when most of the payment is going to interest?

No, the return on investment is not affected by where the mortgage in its life cycle.  While the allocation os scheduled payments between principal and interest changes over the life of the mortgage, extra payments go entirely to principal, no matter what stage of its life cycle the mortgage is in. 

5. Is there a way to escape a pre-payment penalty clause?

No.  the clause was put in the loan to protect the lender, or the investor if the loan is sold.  Pre-payment penaltys do not get waived.

6. Should seniors approaching retirement payoff their mortgage?

If they have significant assets, this can be a great idea.  Once again, it is important to consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding your money.

7. I have more than one mortgage which one to I pay off first? 

The one that has the highest rate of interest is the one you want to focus on paying down first.  Sometimes it is a good idea to look at paying off a variable rate mortgage before a fixed rate even though the rate might be lower on the adjustable, because future adjustments could be a greater risk.

8. Should I consider refinancing my mortgage?

There are many factors to consider to determine whether or not a refinance will ultimately save you money.  Consider contacting a mortgage professional.  They can take a look at your current mortgage, and determine based upon your future plans whether or not it will save you money. 

If you have other mortgage related questions, please don't hesitate to contact me directly at the office 909.336.7995 or contact Tom Crate or Marty Sievers at Mountain West Financial.  They can be reached at 909.336.1793.

 

 

90 Days of Home Sales on the Mountain

 
Steven Keefe, Broker/Owner 
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty 

www.mountainmoves.com
steve@mountainupdate.com
909.744.7690

The following chart shows all single family home sales on the mountain reported as sold to the Rim Associaion of Realtors from September 13, 2011 to December 11, 2011.  Serious sellers list their property with a company that gets results.  That company is Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty.  If you are a homeowner needing the assistance of a professional nationally recognized firm don't hesitate to contact Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty.

Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty sells more homes than anyone on the mountain.  In these tough economic times sellers need every advantage possible to obtain the best results.  Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge Realty offers those advantages.

	Listings	Market
Firm	Sold	Share
Coldwell Banker Sky Ridge	82	41%
Capre	18	9%
Prudential California	14	7%
Remax Lakeside	12	6%
Lynne B. Wilson & Associates	8	4%
Mountain Country	8	4%
Mountain Top Producers	8	4%
Out of Area Broker	7	3%
Sothebys	6	3%
Keller Williams	6	3%
Century 21 Showcase	5	2%
Maxim	4	2%
Prime Properties	4	2%
Century 21 Bonnie Blue	3	1%
Plaza One Real Estate	3	1%
Windermere	3	1%
Coldwell Banker Running Springs	2	1%
Lakeview Real Estate	2	1%
Woody Stahl Broker	2	1%
Cozy Cabins	1	0.5%
Glenn Tinturin, Broker	1	0.5%
Green Valley Lake Real Estate	1	0.5%
Gregg Grant, Broker	1	0.5%
Highlander Real Estate	1	0.5%
Total Sales for 90 Days	202