The following chart shows all lot sales from the year 2000 to present. From 2000 to 2007 which was the last time there was a sale in Cedar Ridge of a vacant lot reported to the Rim Association of Realtors, A total of 36 sales occured. Since 2007 there have been none.
I was flabbergasted to review the data and spent some time reviewing what in my opinion is preventing some sales to occur.
It isn't because no one wants to sell in Cedar Ridge as there have been 30 separate listings in the MLS during that dry spell 27 of which ended in a non sale... either the listing expired, or the seller cancelled the listing. Currently 3 of the 30 are actively on the market and available for sale. One is priced above the threshold of what I believe will sell in todays market at nearly $600,000 for 5 acres, and the other two are very much priced above the market and will likely not sell.
To be priced competitvely in the current Lake Arrowhead market, we are finding that values have gone back to 2002 levels. From 2002 to 2006, our market experienced dramatic surges in value. During that time the values of the lots doubled in value.
Unfortunately, when the market slowed down, there was significantly less demand for vacant land and buyers stopped buying. Sellers in the Cedar Ridge market have failed to recognized that values have dropped to the 2002 levels and maintained inflated asking prices hoping to recoup their investments.
After analyzing the data , it is my professional opinion that had sellers realized where the current market stood with regard to value and had adjusted the asking prices to be reflective of the current market conditons, multiple lots would have sold during this period of 5 years where there have been no sales.
A client approached me this week to evaluate what it would take to effect a sale of his property. My advice to him was that he review my report and position his lot at $124,990 per acre and he will likely see some activity and be the first in many years to actually sell his Cedar Ridge Lot.
This seller purchased his lot in 2005 for nearly double what I am suggesting that he price it today. He may choose to wait out the market, which in my opinion will not improve his chances to recoup his investment. He may choose to list the property with someone else higher than what market tells us it should be listed, in which case, he for sure won't improve his chances to recoup his investment. Or he can make a business decision to position the property correctly in the market and secure for himself the best opportunity to recoup the most amount from his investment.
Cedar Ridge Lots Sales
No Other Sales After this Date
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